This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
Just 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, while the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, twice all season has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.