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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd