Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
